Take a look at the following video which illustrates the time-lapsed life-cycle of a roadway.  When a decision is made to build a new road, it is a long-term  commitment to an ever-expanding future budget for repair, renewal and rebuilding.  As our network of roads expands (and ages), where is the needed money going to come from?

Below is an eight-minute film entitled “Magic Highway USA,” produced by Disney in 1958.

With a tone that is positively gooey with industrial-era optimism, this video clip explores the endless possibilities for personal mobility via future “roads.”

The hopes of the era offer a lot of insight into how our current highway system was conceived;  It’s also quite poignant when one considers how little we have really achieved in the 50 years which have passed.

Today’s headline about the drop in the newly unemployed is good, I guess.  I tend to look at this cynically….after all, we’re boasting about how few jobs were lost, yet the number is not small at all.  I guess it’s all relative.

But herein gives me a chance to point you in the direction of one of my favorite statistics:   Unemployment By Educational Attainment.

You’re smart, so I won’t interpret this data for you, but I will highlight what is most interesting to me:  Unemployment among those with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher is at a mere 4.9% (Nov. ‘09).  Show this stuff to any aimless students in your household; Perhaps it will provide some motivation.

First, I am proud of you.  Life is very busy.  Taking the time to get involved is a big step; After all, it’s not easy to stay focused on external commitments when you have more work than you have hours to execute it. Then add the demands of your personal life, and well, there isn’t much room left.  This makes it all the more important to choose wisely.

When counseling others on how to position their careers toward their long term goals, I break these types of groups into two flavors:  Professional Associations, and Industry Associations.

Professional Associations are excellent resources for YOU, the professional, to hone your skills and knowledge within your specialization, including continuing education, and keeping abreast of new technologies which may affect you and your clients.

Industry Associations, where clients, peers, competitors, and vendors gather are useful for other reasons.  They are focused on your Client’s business, and allow you an opportunity to learn more about your customer.  Meetings can be an outstanding source of early intelligence regarding future bid opportunities, as well as where potential teaming partners are sized up.

I think participation in both is important in planning your career, with an emphasis in the latter for those who wish to distinguish themselves in business development.  If your objective is technical luminary status, perhaps your emphasis should be on the former.  Regardless, they’re all worthy outlets for your time, and participation will set you apart from the rest.

I have been doing a lot of reading lately – some of which, admittedly, is several years old – on the fact that there is a pending significant skilled worker shortage here in the U.S.  No one dares write about this topic now, amidst high unemployment, but the current circumstances are merely distracting us from the truth:  We in the U.S. are not producing the highly skilled workforce, in labor or the professional sciences, which can meet the demands of a normally functioning economy.

At this very moment, several industries are facing a dire skilled workforce shortage.  These industries include healthcare, skilled manufacturing, and engineering.  Yes, I said engineering.  You and I both know that this is a very broad brush stroke, but that’s beside the point.  I can tell you that, in my own experience and from speaking with many collaborators, there is a supply void for engineers in all facets of mass transit, water resources, and energy/renewables/sustainability (According to Manpower’s 2009 Talent Shortage Report , only 19% of companies indicated that they had trouble filling positions in 2009. The #1 recruiting trouble spot? Engineers).  When it comes to infrastructure, there may be a good supply of engineers who know how things have been done, but there is a shortage of those who can meaningfully contribute to the way we will move, drink, power up and live in the 21^st century.  To paraphrase a now defunct automaker, this is not your father’s infrastructure.

Not everyone agrees with the panicky warnings of the skilled worker gap, but all agree that the skills needed to meet the challenges of a modern market are different from those of the past, therefore creating great challenges in certain niches – even amidst “The Great Recession.”

Here are some of the trends which are said to predicate a massive skilled worker shortage within the next five to ten years:

1. Demographics. Baby Boomers are making up a large number of the senior ranks right now, and although they don’t seem to be going anywhere at this moment, when they do decide to stop working, there are fewer workers in the generation succeeding them to fill their shoes.   Apparently, the boomers were so busy working and enjoying their relative wealth, they didn’t see fit to make a lot of babies (also an issue in funding social security).  So, in summary, you have people leaving the workforce in greater number than the U.S. has replacements for them.  This part of the crisis doesn’t even require job growth, since it is all about maintenance of productivity.
2. And speaking of productivity, I have something to share which will be mildly scandalous to my Gen-X peers: When baby boomers do need to be replaced, it is suggested that they will need to be replaced by more than a single worker. Why?  Baby Boomers are renowned “workaholics,” yet their succeeding generation is more likely to hold sacred a “work-life balance” by placing a greater emphasis on home and family.  As such, they are less likely to give up leisure and personal time to the organization on a day-in, day-out basis.  Some scholars (such as those referenced) think this means we of the Gen-X crowd are less productive.
3. Lack of Emphasis in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) subjects in education systems throughout the nation. I, personally, think this is a cultural issue and the problem in offering courses of study is a result of the laws of supply and demand.  I believe if communities work collaboratively to place greater emphasis and value upon the sciences, then bright young minds will gravitate in that direction. My hypothesis is based on empirical evidence only, including the fact that I know way too many chemists from Boston (what did Boston do to make this happen?) and the observation that many STEM students are foreign nationals.  (As a solution, my husband recommends mandatory class field trips to the wastewater treatment plant or the county landfill.  I think it’s a good idea, and a great eye-opener. )
4. Limitations on Immigration and Work Authorization will drain the U.S. of much of its STEM talent: Security issues leading to more stringent immigration policies may choke off the supply of foreign nationals who come to the US to study in the STEM disciplines;  Or these students who attend U.S. universities, will unsuccessfully seek work visa status, and have no choice but to return to their home countries to apply their newly-minted knowledge.

I would like to hear from everyone on this topic, but especially corporate recruitment departments and managers everywhere.  Do you subscribe to prognostications of a dire worker shortage on the horizon?  What are you doing to get ready for the crunch?

Speaking of Tolls, perhaps the mafia are engaged in a little P3 activity sans contract:  FBI Raids PA Turnpike, Part 1 and Part 2

Experts Weigh In: What Can Private Infrastructure Owners Teach The Public Sector?

Although not from this week, here’s a look at toll roads in Japan, through the eyes of an American Transportation Planner.

Cap’n Transit explores a world where tolling cars to fund transportation is ubiquitous, and questions if this revenue stream is an incentive to keep people in their cars?

Sonny Corleone wishes he had EZ Pass

This third tipping point, in my experience, is at least 90% accurate. I have been reticent to mention it because it is gender-specific to men, but upon reflection, it is too important not to bring to your attention.

Without a doubt, within AE consulting space, the pending or new arrival of a child into the family is a major contributor to job search behavior. I say this is gender-specific, because we gals are not dummies….we are inclined to “stay put” for the FMLA benefits. **

I am neither a psychologist nor a scientist, but if I had to boil it down to biology, I’d guess that this is some type of latent “provider gene” in action, the modern-day equivalent to stepping up the hunt for food to feed a growing family. It might be the first child, it might be a successive child, but I can tell you when I find a candidate with a bun-in-the-family-oven, I know he’s got anxiety about advancing his career.

It’s not overt; He doesn’t recognize it as a factor at all. What is he thinking? If the family is considering becoming a traditional one-income household, his motivations are fairly obvious. However, this behavior occurs equally in families with two income–earners. Is he thinking braces, summer camp and college tuition so early?

I tell these blokes it’s a lousy time to be looking for a career move. So much of the world as they know it is about to change, why shake things up even more? But they don’t listen to me.

Male readers, look back on your own careers, and what lifetime events were in play when you made certain job changes. I guarantee you will be able to correlate a job change, seeking a promotion or other career milestone with the pending or recent arrival of at least one child.

The feedback is the same whenever I share this tidbit of information with managers: They didn’t even know it when it was happening to THEM; then, they begin to catalog life events of those recently hired and recently departed.  I smugly enjoy their epiphanies.

** Why the gents are not equally motivated by this perk is a whole other discussion that we can cover over a few glasses of wine, ladies.

I am a little confused by these objections, because I recall that the pricing for the HOT Lanes was to be congestion based/variable, which, if managed appropriately should preclude a “back up at the HOT lanes terminus.”  On the other hand, I can absolutely understand Arlington’s desire to access the operational projections so that they can plan accordingly for the traffic which may flow into their streets as a result of the project. (It’s only mildly ironic that a more highly functioning interstate highway might cause inner city traffic engineers some panic.)

As for the perceived competition the Capital Beltway HOT Lanes will present for mass transit (and carpooling) proponents, isn’t one of the requirements of the project that high occupancy vehicles get to ride the HOT lanes at reduced cost (and in the case of transit vehicles, at no cost)? Is roadway P3 really in competition with Mass Transit?  I’d really like to know how much of this controversy is based on valid concerns and how much of this bruhaha is political fear-mongering.  Anyone on the inside care to chime in?

If you missed the part about WHY we need a new means for funding the maintenance and growth of our transportation infrastructure, then let’s recap:  

First, the Highway Trust Fund (HTF), which pays for much of our roadway development, is depleted.  At the same time, the revenue to the HTF from gasoline taxes – already not enough – only promises to decline as fuel efficiency increases.   Concurrently, much our infrastructure is at a critical juncture in it’s life cycle — in need of major repair or a complete rebuild.

It’s the perfect storm:  Less money when more is sorely needed.

So, how do we raise more money for the work which needs to be done?  Here are some scenarios swirling around policy war rooms today:

• Reconfigure the gas tax to an ad valorem tax: Setting the gasoline tax as a percentage of fuel purchase instead of a flat, cents per gallon tax would be a better way to index revenue to road use and inflation. However, this idea presents a future conflict of interest to a nation which seeks to incentivize sustainable energy solutions and reduce its dependence on oil.  How can we justify funding mobility from the sale of fossil fuels?
• Toll roads: This classic model will have a new spin in that your toll road might be leased to a private company that has been selected to operate and maintain the road for a specific number of years.  They will recoup their operating costs through tolls to the user, and will be responsible for upkeep and performance as well as all services provided on the facility.  In some cases, the investor will also design, build, operate and maintain the roadway, for which they will be awarded a much longer lease (we’re talking greater than 50 years).  In the business we call this Public-Private Partnership, PPP, or P3, and it’s already a successful model in many U.S. states.
• Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): Given the advent of more fuel efficient vehicles, this idea is meant to recapture monies lost in gasoline sales.   It seems to be a more effective use tax, since it is fairly applied by actual miles driven than by gasoline consumed, and may be a better behavioral incentive for eliminating trips, combining trips, or exercising mode choice.  Since mileage tax is collected by the states, this proposal gets sticky when drivers cross state lines, but I am certain since I’ve last read up on the topic that they have come up with a solution to this problem.  (Anyone?)

In the United States, one can expect that in the future there will be a more direct correlation between transportation mode of choice and individual burden/cost.  This means there will be a different and very direct price to fly, drive, bus, rail or bike it.  The user will certainly weigh this price against available time and budget, then make choices accordingly.  The biggest change will be in the cost to drive…and it may change the way you move forever.

How do you believe these hypothetical changes will affect your own travel behavior?  What cultural/societal shifts do you predict will occur as a result of such changes?

Special Thanks to Contributing Researcher & Writer Crystal Pendergrass, civil engineer/jobseeker, and to Contributing Editor, Donald Galligan, AICP, all around nice guy.

Keep On Truckin’  A look at the critical need to move truck freight through a crumbling infrastructure.

Zombie Highways A Dispute in Alabama over funding a $3B highway.

Choke Point (Part I) and Choke Point (Part II)  A look at train freight movement in the U.S.

Road to The Future  A full documentary comparing the variant histories of transportation infrastructure development in Denver, New York and Portland.

Transit in Trouble  Discussion of increased demand for mass transit solutions at the same time of decreased investment in/funding for public transit.

My local PBS station doesn’t always show the specials.  The web is my only place to get this great reporting and analysis.  Hope you enjoy these clips as much as I have!